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Mounting concerns are present about the potential of military engagement involving Horn of Africa countries, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as aggressive rhetoric has ratcheted up in the last month.

What Did Ethiopian Officials Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, requests for passage to the maritime outlet through Eritrean territory has triggered a fierce verbal exchange.

PM Abiy Ahmed previously announced in the previous year that his country's sea access was an existential matter, comments that Eritrea rejected.

Relations between the both governments have often been tense. After a prolonged battle for independence, the Eritrean state, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) sea border, formally separated from Ethiopian rule in 1993, leaving it landlocked.

Subsequently, a military clash broke out in which over a hundred thousand people died.

Recent Remarks from Ethiopian Government

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have openly claimed control of Eritrean coastal city of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the frontier - and hinted at the intention to seize it militarily.

In early September, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "mistake" of being denied passage to the sea as a result of Eritrea secession would be "rectified in the future".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be restored "by force".

Eritrean Response to the Claims

In the face of ongoing warnings from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's response has been confined to concise remarks on X from Communications Head Yemane G..

Officials have denied Ethiopia's push for maritime entry describing it as "dangerous" and a "negative policy" of "expansionism" – a strategy of claiming back previous domains.

Eritrean authorities warned on 16 September that efforts to justify "blatant hostility" would have serious consequences for the Ethiopian government and its neighbors and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Activities on the Border

Currently, there are few indications of major military movements in the frontier regions between the two countries.

However, in Ethiopia, state television has shown graduation ceremonies of numerous trainees at different defense facilities.

The leader of personnel division of the military, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, recently said in an conversation that the defense forces was in a "secure situation" as "many thousands of recruits" were enlisting, which he said was "a message to our adversaries".

Previous Origins of the Tension

For more than half a century from 1890, Eritrea was ruled by Italian colonisers.

Following the end of Italian rule, it was then administered by the UK forces before becoming a federated part of Ethiopia.

But in 1962 the Ethiopian emperor ended this system and the region became totally absorbed into the Ethiopian state.

A thirty-year internal conflict ensued, finishing with the government's loss in 1991. Autonomy was then confirmed by Eritreans in a vote in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were good relations between the leadership in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they clashed over the precise positioning of their mutual frontier, resulting in conflict in 1998.

Even though this finished in a peace deal in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the both countries stayed at odds.

This ended in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The two agreed to a statement that the war was over – a decision that earned the Prime Minister the prestigious award.

The neighboring states were then cooperators in the country's 2020-2022 civil war in Tigray.

Yet diplomatic connections have subsequently deteriorated again.