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"I will be sitting in this office by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer remarked, adding that if our interview proceeded smoothly, he might invite us into his official residence for a follow-up talk in 2026.

For a PM, there's never truly break for those in the top job. Shortly before our chat started, Sir Keir had been speaking with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and working to decipher precisely had occurred in Venezuela, where his big ally, US President Donald Trump, had recently launched a strike against and detained its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

When our lengthy talk, which was much longer than typical, had finished, Maduro had been indicted in New York.

Renewed Energy for the New Year

With the new year begins, Sir Keir appears to have had something of a reboot. Maybe even just a bit of relaxation with his family at Chequers, the prime minister's official country residence.

This seemed to have put him in improved morale than at the saggy end of 2025, a awful annus horribilis for him.

But are he and his supporters deluding themselves if they think his political fate are poised to get better?

Leadership Questions

The grisly reality for the PM is that numerous of his fellow MPs think he's not very good at his job. A faction of them would sooner gamble and oust him in 2026.

However Starmer was dismissing such talk during our conversation on Saturday morning.

Repeatedly he insisted he'd be "evaluated at the poll", arguing nobody would take his electoral mandate from him – even if the optimal path of preventing Nigel Farage and Reform UK getting to No 10 might be for Labour to replace its leader.

"We are in the battle of our generation and I aim to lead us," he affirmed.

The Spring Test

The issue for the PM is that he will be assessed far sooner than then – in a mega set of elections in May across the UK. He sought to protest, perhaps too much, that they are concerning who runs councils, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not a verdict on Westminster.

Accurate – to some extent. But even though he may be reluctant to admit it, No 10 will be evaluated by those elections too.

This did not stop Sir Keir stating that there were no circumstances under which he would step down, should a his colleagues challenged him for the job, should those elections prove catastrophic for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He sought to explain his low poll ratings by saying the public was naturally eager for things to change. He sought to persuade the interviewer, and the nation, that 2026 would be distinct.

The economy would strengthen despite rising unemployment, he said, when plans the government enacted during their first choppy year began to show results.

• He pledged to empty asylum hotels ahead of the current target date of 2029, but he did not set a specific date on that.
• He noted too, with the proviso that it wasn't a foregone conclusion, that a peace agreement in Ukraine felt closer now than at any point since Russia's full-scale invasion.
• He revealed for the first time that Western partners were now considering how to combine US and European forces to ensure security for Ukraine – to guard a possible peace.

His core argument is that in 2026 the country will "see an improvement".

Political Challenges

The PM may have communicated with more energy than observed from him for a some time – more relaxed, maybe, with a longer slot to talk.

But despite facing demands from various quarters for a bolder strategy, with greater political direction, more urgency, more speed and more urgency, his arguments were repeated ones.

Given that he is in such significant political difficulty, is a different approach required a different script?

No administration, and especially not one that has been struggling in the polls for many months, gets everything its own way.

Sir Keir's challenges are not just because government is hard, but because he and his team have faltered, including in the recent past.

Controversies and Dangers

The PM expressed regret that he was sorry for saying he was "delighted" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK after an outcry when comments he'd made in the past – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – surfaced.

Sir Keir blamed "procedures" for not catching what the activist had said before – a more diplomatic way of saying not my fault.

And he is facing evident political risks as the year unfolds. His close relationship with the US president takes on a new risk after Trump's strikes on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over a long period, the notion he would be at ease with these events seems far-fetched.

International Law and Brexit

He told me he was a "career-long proponent of international law" but we "just lack the complete details at the moment".

Critics called for him to condemn it before the interview. And the government is likely to face further scrutiny to give an clear view in Parliament in the coming days.

And there has consistently been bubbling pressure in the Labour ranks to reverse or renegotiate some of the outcomes of Brexit.

Sir Keir disputes he's pursuing that, but his new specific plan to move closer with the European trading bloc – the huge economic European trading zone – will likely provoke accusations that he is breaking his pledge never to try to reverse the results that flowed from Brexit.

A commitment to align with more of the single market will please many on his side of the party, but it is prime ammunition for Reform and the Conservatives to